"But how do you tell the difference between beginner’s luck and the first signs of real talent? There is no clear rule, but these two tips may help: **first, if you are much better than others over a long period of time, you can be fairly sure that talent plays a part**. (Unfortunately, though, you can never be 100%.) **Second, the more people competing, the greater the chances are that one of them will repeatedly strike lucky**. Perhaps even you. If, among ten competitors, you establish yourself as a market leader over many years, you can clap yourself on the back. That’s a sure indication of talent. But, if you are top dog among 10 million players (i.e. in the financial markets) in one particular year, you shouldn’t start visualising a Buffettesque financial empire just yet; **it’s extremely likely that you have simply been very fortunate**." --- **Tags** — [[quotes]], [[beginner-luck]] , [[survivorship-bias]], [[self-serving-bias]], [[association-bias]], [[false-causality]]. [[illusion-of-skill]] **Source** — [[202308101525 — B — The Art of Thinking Clearly]]