"In medical school, residents spend a lot of time purging base-rate neglect. The motto drummed into any prospective doctor in the United States is: ‘**When you hear hoofbeats behind you, don’t expect to see a zebra**." -- --- **Tags** — [[quotes]], [[base-rate-neglect]], [[statistics]], [[forecasting]], [[survivorship-bias]], [[fooled-by-randomness]], [[gambler-fallacy]] , [[conjunction-fallacy]], [[problem-with-averages]], [[information-bias]], [[ambiguity-aversion]], [[teaching-anecdotes]] **Source** — [[202308101525 — B — The Art of Thinking Clearly]]