"Survivorship bias means this: **people systematically overestimate their chances of success.** Guard against it by frequently visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments and careers. It is a sad walk, but one that should clear your mind." -- --- **Tags** — [[quotes]], [[pre-mortem]], [[overconfidence-effect]], [[forecasting]], [[planning-fallacy]], [[survivorship-bias]], [[self-serving-bias]], [[beginner-luck]] , [[base-rate-neglect]], [[induction]], [[fooled-by-randomness]], [[illusion-of-skill]], [[intention-to-treat-error]] **Source** — [[202308101525 — B — The Art of Thinking Clearly]]