“You will also come across survivorship bias when dealing with money and risk: imagine that a friend founds a start-up. You belong to the circle of potential investors and you sense a real opportunity: this could be the next Google. Maybe you’ll be lucky. But what is the reality? **The most likely scenario is that the company will not even make it off the starting line. The second most likely outcome is that it will go bankrupt within three years.** Of the companies that survive these first three years, most never grow to more than ten employees. So, should you never put your hard-earned money at risk? Not necessarily. But **you should recognise that the survivorship bias is at work, distorting the probability of success like cut glass**.” -- --- **Tags** — [[quotes]], [[survivorship-bias]], [[self-serving-bias]], [[beginner-luck]] , [[base-rate-neglect]], [[induction]], [[fooled-by-randomness]], [[illusion-of-skill]], [[intention-to-treat-error]], [[forecasting]] **Source** — [[202308101525 — B — The Art of Thinking Clearly]]