"So, **be critical when you encounter predictions**. Whenever I hear one, I make sure to smile, no matter how bleak it is. Then I ask myself two questions. **First, what incentive does the expert have?** If he is an employee, could he lose his job if he is always wrong? Or is he a self-appointed guru who earns a living through books and lectures? The latter type of forecaster relies on the media’s attention so, predictably, his prophecies tend to be sensational. **Second, how good is his success rate?** How many predictions has he made over the past five years? Out of these, how many have been right and how many have not?" --- **Tags** — [[quotes]], [[forecasting]], [[expectations]], [[planning-fallacy]], [[authority-bias]], [[hindsight-bias]], [[overconfidence-effect]], [[illusion-of-control]], [[hedonic-treadmill]], [[fooled-by-randomness]], [[arrogance]] **Source** — [[202308101525 — B — The Art of Thinking Clearly]],