"In daily life, because **triumph is made more visible than failure**, you systematically overestimate your chances of succeeding" --- **Tags** — [[quotes]], [[overconfidence-effect]], [[forecasting]], [[fooled-by-randomness]], [[survivorship-bias]], [[beginner-luck]] , [[base-rate-neglect]], [[induction]], [[illusion-of-skill]], [[intention-to-treat-error]] **Source** — [[202308101525 — B — The Art of Thinking Clearly]]