“Think of life as like a criminal investigation: **a beautifully linear and logical narrative when viewed in retrospect, but a fiendishly random, messy and wasteful process when experienced in real time**. Crime fiction would be unreadably boring if it accurately depicted events, because the vast majority of it would involve enquiries that led nowhere. **And that’s how it’s supposed to be – the single worst thing that can happen in a criminal investigation is for everyone involved to become fixated on the same theory, because one false assumption shared by everyone can undermine the entire investigation**. There’s a name for this – it’s called ‘[[privileging the hypothesis]]’.” --- **Tags** -- [[quotes]], [[hindsight-bias]] , [[false-consensus-effect]] , [[fooled-by-randomness]] , **Source** -- [[202407221554 - B - Alchemy]]