"Nero believes that risk-conscious hard work and discipline can lead someone to achieve a comfortable life with a very high probability. Beyond that, it is all randomness: either by taking enormous (and unconscious) risks, or by being extraordinarily lucky. **Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance**." --- **Tags** -- [[quotes]], [[fooled-by-randomness]], [[discipline]], [[routines]], [[expertise]], [[personal-values]], [[goal-setting]] **Source** -- [[202410121132 - B - Fooled by Randomness]] **See Also** -- [[202410121151 - AtN - We tend to dismiss the unfavourable side of risk-taking]]