"To start, **it is impossible to read a historian’s analysis without questioning the inferences**: We know that [[Hannibal]] and [[Hitler]] were mad in their pursuits, as [[Rome]] is not today [[Phoenician]]-speaking and [[Times Square]] in [[New York]] currently exhibits no swastikas. But what of all those generals who were equally foolish, but ended up winning the war and consequently the esteem of the historical chronicler? "It is hard to think of [[Alexander the Great]] or [[Julius Caesar]] as men who won only in the visible history, but who could have suffered defeat in others. **If we have heard of them, it is simply because they took considerable risks, along with thousands of others, and happened to win**. They were intelligent, courageous, noble (at times), had the highest possible obtainable culture in their day—**but so did thousands of others who live in the musty footnotes of history**. Again I am not contesting that they won their wars—**only the claims concerning the quality of their strategies**" --- **Tags** -- [[quotes]], [[hindsight-bias]], [[falsification-of-history]], [[survivorship-bias]], **Source** -- [[202410121132 - B - Fooled by Randomness]]