"Assume I engage in a gambling strategy that has 999 chances in 1,000 of making $1 (event A) and 1 chance in 1,000 of losing $10,000 (event B), as in Table 6.1. My expectation is a loss of close to $9 (obtained by multiplying the probabilities by the corresponding outcomes). **The frequency or probability of the loss, in and by itself, is totally irrelevant; it needs to be judged in connection with the magnitude of the outcome**. Here A is far more likely than B. Odds are that we would make money by betting for event A, **but it is not a good idea to do so**." --- **Tags** -- [[quotes]], [[gambler-fallacy]], [[probabilistic-thinking]], [[survivorship-bias]], [[making-decisions]] **Source** -- [[202410121132 - B - Fooled by Randomness]] **See Also** -- [[202410121151 - AtN - We tend to dismiss the unfavourable side of risk-taking]]