"How should one conduct the proper simulation? By taking a population of managers in existence, say, five years ago and running the simulation up to today. Clearly, **the attributes of those who leave the population are biased toward failure; few successful people in such a lucrative business call it quits because of extreme success**. Before we turn to a more technical presentation of these issues, one mention of the much idealized buzzword of optimism. Optimism, it is said, is predictive of success. Predictive? It can also be predictive of failure. **Optimistic people certainly take more risks as they are overconfident about the odds; those who win show up among the rich and famous, others fail and disappear from the analyses**. Sadly." --- **Tags** -- [[quotes]], [[optimism]], [[pessimism]], [[survivorship-bias]], [[fooled-by-randomness]], [[entrepreneur]], [[making-decisions]], **Source** -- [[202410121132 - B - Fooled by Randomness]] **See Also** -- [[202410121151 - AtN - We tend to dismiss the unfavourable side of risk-taking]]