"What am I doing? The exact same task of looking for the survivor within the set of rules that can possibly work. I am fitting the rule on the data. **This activity is called data snooping. The more I try, the more I am likely, by mere luck, to find a rule that worked on past data**. A random series will always present some detectable pattern. I am convinced that there exists a tradable security in the Western world that would be 100% correlated with the changes in temperature in Ulan Bator, [[Mongolia]]." --- **Tags** -- [[quotes]], [[data-analytics]], [[statistics]], [[fooled-by-randomness]], [[birthday-paradox]], [[correlation]], [[survivorship-bias]] **Source** -- [[202410121132 - B - Fooled by Randomness]]