"Worse, one [[Harvard University|Harvard]] lawyer used **the specious argument that only 10% of men who brutalize their wives go on to murder them**, which is a probability unconditional on the murder (whether the statement was made out of a warped notion of advocacy, pure malice, or ignorance is immaterial). Isn’t the law devoted to the truth? "The correct way to look at it **is to determine the percentage of murder cases where women were killed by their husbands and had previously been battered by them** (that is, 50%)—for we are dealing with what is called **conditional probabilities; the probability that OJ. killed his wife conditional on the information of her having been killed**, rather than the unconditional probability of O.J. killing his wife. "**How can we expect the untrained person to understand randomness** when a [[Harvard University|Harvard]] professor who deals and teaches the concept of probabilistic evidence can make such an incorrect statement?" --- **Tags** -- [[quotes]], [[conditional-probabilities]], [[probability-distributions]], [[fooled-by-randomness]], [[statistics]], [[data-analytics]], [[teaching-anecdotes]] **Source** -- [[202410121132 - B - Fooled by Randomness]]