"**The fact that these “scientists” pronounced the catastrophic losses a “ten sigma” event reveals a Wittgenstein’s ruler problem**: Someone saying this is a ten sigma either (a) knows what he is talking about with near perfection (the prior ssumption is that it has one possibility of being unqualified in several billion billions), knows his probabilities, and it is an event that happens once every several times the history of the universe; or (b) just does not know what he is talking about when he talks about probability (with a high degree of certainty), **and it is an event that has a probability higher than once every several times the history of the universe**." --- **Tags** -- [[quotes]], [[fooled-by-randomness]], [[wittgensteins-ruler]], [[humility]], [[probability-distributions]], [[data-analytics]], [[statistics]] **Source** -- [[202410121132 - B - Fooled by Randomness]]