"Intuitively, it feels sensible to work out in detail what your projects involve, to break them into chunks and estimate how long each part will take. **But the problem with unforeseen delays is you can’t foresee them, no matter how finely detailed your planning**. And so, writes [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] at overcomingbias.com, **the unlikely trick is to plan in less detail: to avoid considering the specifics and simply ask yourself how long it’s taken to do roughly similar things before.** ‘You’ll get back an answer that sounds hideously long, and clearly reflects no understanding of the special reasons why this task will take less time,’ he writes. Nonetheless, ‘this answer is true. Deal with it’." --- **Tags** -- [[quotes]], [[acceptance]], [[planning-fallacy]], [[parkinsons-law]], [[project-management]], [[getting-things-done]], [[self-reflection]] **Source** -- [[20241114100017 - B - Help!]]