"Quantitative forecasts fall into three broad categories. "The smallest includes **forecasts that deal with processes whose workings are well known** and whose dynamics are inherently restricted to a relatively confined set of outcomes. "The second, and a much larger category, **includes forecasts pointing in the right direction but with substantial uncertainties** regarding the specific outcome. "And the third category (I already described some of its recent energy and environmental specimens in the previous chapter) is that of quantitative fables: **such forecasting exercises may teem with numbers, but the numbers are outcomes of layered (and often questionable) assumptions, and the processes traced by such computerized fairy tales will have very different real-world endings**. "Of course, their creators may defend the heuristic value of such exercises, while uninitiated users may exploit some of the conclusions to reinforce their own prejudices or to dismiss plausible alternatives." ([Location 3992](https://readwise.io/to_kindle?action=open&asin=B08SGC3TD3&location=3992)) --- **Tags** -- [[quotes]], [[forecasting]], [[data-analytics]] **Source** -- [[202412030828 - B - How the World Really Works]]